Podcasts, videos, books and tweets of the week 35
Here comes the Ukrainian offensive
So let’s do a roundup.
Deep battle
Both sides seem to be incapable of deep battle a year on in Ukraine.
The Russians did carry out a partially succesful deep battle operation in 2022. The north part failed, catastrophically for the VDV but the south was succesful. Yes Ukraine pushed back at Kherson but Russia still has a land bridge to Crimea and Mariupol is destroyed. Phil has plenty of articles on this subject, this is the newest one.
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Deep battle changed into attrition.
I don’t like what’s happening at Bakhmut because I thing if I had an army I didn’t trust, with low morale, facing a better opponent with high morale, I would be fighting a meat grinder war where my artillery and cannon fodder counts. Putin' isn’t a strategic genius but let’s be honest, Russia didn’t become its obscene size through strategic genius. Russia fights brutal genocidal attrition wars.
I detest the stupid kill counts and boasts about 10:1 or whatever. Those 10 (it’s closer to 3 at best) are prison scum that Russia wants to die. The 1 is an Ukrainian dad or a kid who will never father a child. Ukraine was already in demographic catastrophe not even crisis.
On 24 February 2023, Russia’s war against Ukraine reached its one-year mark. In the space of one year, many Ukrainians had to flee their country, which lead to the fastest and largest displacement of people in Europe since the Second World War.
It is estimated that by the end of January 2023, there were around 5.3 million people displaced internally across Ukraine, while approximately 7 million had fled abroad with around 4 million to the EU.
25-30% displaced. That’s mass movement not seen this World War 2 in the case of Poland which had its population changed the most in Europe.
Anyway, deep battle. Good video from last year.
Let’s see if Ukraine can deep battle Russia. I don’t think it can because it hasn’t got air superiority and no amount of F16s can change that. NATO could gain air superiority and possibly supremacy but with the specialised F22, F35 and electronic warfare packages. Not F16s. No matter how brave or smart Ukrainian pilots are.
The key axis of Ukrainian advance in 2023 would be towards Mariupol to cut the land bridge. Crimea could then be strangled instead of assaulted. But that’s predictable.
Substack notes are full of fascists
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I only lost 3 subscribers for daring to suggest Azov are not completely mmkay. Thanks. Like I wrote, Russia is murdering genociding Ukraine and is far more Nazi than the most Nazi of old Azov (who are pretty Nazi, that said).
Snyder history of Ukraine
Recommended listening but with my note on ethnic cleansing. Remember that when somebody spouts nonsense forgetting about the Jews and Poles of Western Ukraine.
Bandera wasn’t opposed to Nazi genocide. He supported it.
Budd of the Week
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Medvedev genocide
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Yes I am still writing a filing against Musk for tolerating this content. Deleting one tweet doesn’t count as Musk not being a Russian ally in genocide.
I have called out Russian genocide talk on Twitter for as long as this substack has been around.
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Medvedev appears here and in other articles. As well as our upcoming book - Putin’s War - Russian Genocide.
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Much love to Ukraine as always. Much hate to Russian genocide.