Here’s the eightepisode from Adjutants Lounge, all rights are Ben and Phil.

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Transcript

00:00:00 Ben Skipper

Hello and welcome to the Actions lounge. Today we are, we've reached part eight of the Russian way of war today. Joining me, I have Doctor Philip blood.

00:00:13 Ben Skipper

No.

00:00:14 Philip Blood

Good afternoon.

00:00:17 Ben Skipper

Dustin Dukane Dustin, who's a legal counsel and for those of you who've listened to the podcast in the past, we have got Nick Bugg joining us today. Nick, welcome.

00:00:18 Dustin Du Cane

Aye.

00:00:28 Nick Budd

Hi, guys. Hi. Nice to be.

00:00:29 Ben Skipper

Here, thank you. Now, over the past few weeks, there has been a lot of discussion around genocide. This this has been quite an important topic of discussion because it it's very clearly happening.

00:00:43 Ben Skipper

But today, we're going to be sort of developing a theme, as it were, and looking at the war in the wider wider.

00:00:50 Ben Skipper

Sense of what's actually going on, and this was this was summed up I think you might have been by yourself.

00:00:56 Ben Skipper

Dustin.

00:00:57 Ben Skipper

The the question we're going to be asking today is for the Ukrainians. What is the win?

00:01:04 Ben Skipper

And it sounds ambiguous. Quite quite round but.

00:01:08 Ben Skipper

This will sort of bring in and quite a few bits and pieces of information and hopefully provide you all with a very, very good podcast. So, but before we sort of do that.

00:01:21 Ben Skipper

I think it would be best if Nick sort of launched starts today's discussion because Nick's been in contact with Ukrainians on on the ground and has perspectives that I certainly lack.

00:01:33 Ben Skipper

With what's happening, Nick, are you happy to discuss this?

00:01:39 Nick Budd

Yeah, yeah, absolutely, absolutely.

00:01:43 Nick Budd

I suppose, yeah. I I I I come from a.

00:01:50 Nick Budd

Yeah, a reasonably different.

00:01:52 Nick Budd

Perspective. Just through what little insight, I understand what's been happening in Ukraine beyond reading.

00:02:01 Nick Budd

Historian and defence analysts assessments which largely on Twitter that cover aspects such as urban warfare logistics, retired military from from Britain and and the US and and their.

00:02:21 Nick Budd

Views on the war and and that just comes from.

00:02:24 Nick Budd

You know, yeah, the understanding that I, I know a few people in Ukraine from, you know, several cities, one that is obviously has become a focus very early on certainly from the 2nd and 3rd of March when it was surrounded which is Mariupol.

00:02:48 Nick Budd

Is still bearing the brunt of Russian aggression in the northeast of the country. You know, only what? 30-40 kilometres from the Russian border and the Belgorod Oblast. And then back to Kiev and down to Odessa, which again seems rather vague at the moment, especially with regards to the.

00:03:08 Nick Budd

The most recent information on potentially another Russian warship being hit, but and and so.

00:03:16 Nick Budd

Knowing these people, it it was my my interest.

00:03:22 Nick Budd

First and foremost was the safety of those people, those friends that I knew there. I can remember setting my alarm clock.

00:03:33 Nick Budd

What was it back on the 24th of February when?

00:03:37 Nick Budd

All the pointers we're indicating that Russia would invade Ukraine on the 24th of February and.

00:03:47 Nick Budd

Indeed, I think they pinned it down to a certain time which was early in the morning of the 24th of February. From recollection and and and I think that came from clearly US or, you know, and Western intelligence. So I set my alarm, woke up at 4:00 in the morning and started doom scrolling on my Twitter feed.

00:04:07 Nick Budd

And.

00:04:08 Nick Budd

Was genuinely emotionally.

00:04:13 Nick Budd

It was a sucker punch to the stomach because.

00:04:17 Nick Budd

I knew I had friends there. I I've clearly got friends there and.

00:04:21 Philip Blood

War.

00:04:22 Nick Budd

As we have not experienced it in in Europe for many decades, appeared to have started and the first thing I did was just go outside and have a cigarette. And yeah, there's a few tears in my eyes as well because.

00:04:39 Nick Budd

It was are these people that that I that I know how are they going to be affected? Are they literally going to survive the war? And so I suppose I was actually, it sounds a bit authentic perhaps. But I was in a little bit of shock even though I guessed it was coming just with regards to the impact it may have on these people.

00:05:00 Nick Budd

So yeah, that, that that was my very early thoughts on.

00:05:04 Nick Budd

On on the wall from from I guess just a a humane relationship perspective that I've had a through people I'd worked with previously over here and and friends of of them who who were in Ukraine.

00:05:22 Ben Skipper

From speaking with the contacts you have on the ground, what has been the what has been perhaps more recently the feeling of of, of how things are going there?

00:05:33 Nick Budd

Well, I suppose I can certainly give you the the the most recent, the most recent feeling, but I think it's what provides some some good context is the early feelings as well though, just to just to be.

00:05:43 Nick Budd

Able to see from.

00:05:45 Nick Budd

The way I've interpreted the the the, the, the, the the change in mood and originally I would say that.

00:05:53 Nick Budd

The mood was one of.

00:05:56 Nick Budd

Clearly.

00:05:58 Nick Budd

*** **** it, this mad.

00:06:01 Nick Budd

Person in Russia, IE Putin has actually.

00:06:05 Nick Budd

Done.

00:06:06 Nick Budd

Undertaken what appears to be an excessive.

00:06:11 Nick Budd

And excessive aggressive action towards Ukraine. And but I think there was.

00:06:19 Nick Budd

In addition to that, my God, he's done it and there was this dawning realisation that actually it does. You know, it appeared to be affecting far more of Ukraine, certainly in the northeast and and the north and the northwest than what they were used to over 8-8 years since 2014.

00:06:40 Nick Budd

Where it was simply confined to the east and the attitudes from those who are new in the east, IE the Donbas, drew to Russian speaking cities such as Shakib. And indeed Kiev, which is very Russian speaking.

00:06:54 Nick Budd

As well, there were different attitudes from the start. Whereas in the east they were completely used to war, and indeed my good friend in Mariupol, she was largely sceptical that war was ever going to happen, despite me having discussions with them about.

00:07:15 Nick Budd

About the the vast build up across many parts of the Russian Ukraine border.

00:07:21 Nick Budd

And whereas the mood in further W, particularly in Kiev and Odessa, was ohh they, they were a bit more concerned. They were a bit more concerned.

00:07:33 Nick Budd

Because.

00:07:34 Nick Budd

They hadn't experienced the war in the way those in the Donbas had experienced war for so long, and so there was a distinct cut, a slight, you know, a demarcation in thought process from those people that I knew. And after I would say the first four weeks.

00:07:54 Nick Budd

Was very much a view that.

00:07:58 Nick Budd

The Russians are, you know, are evil. The terminology that many Ukrainians use are orcs, you know, and in in terms of perhaps some, you know, the the limited dehumanisation language that I've seen from Ukrainians towards in contrast to Russian dehumanisation, about.

00:08:18 Nick Budd

Minions.

00:08:19 Nick Budd

And but they were still very much we're going to win this war after initial shock. It was very much our army is going to win.

00:08:25 Nick Budd

This.

00:08:26 Nick Budd

War. Very confident, very bullish, very patriotic, I would say, and that that was that was the the key, the key element.

00:08:40 Nick Budd

The thought process.

00:08:42 Nick Budd

Again, you know caveat this with a few people that I knew out there, albeit within a number of cities within Ukraine and but then beyond beyond that I would say between that that first month and going in towards the end of the second month, the mood changed. And I think the mood changed on the basis that.

00:09:02 Nick Budd

Realisation of of the destruction that cities had received, that perhaps they necessarily weren't expecting to have received, certainly Harkey, to an extent, clearly Kiev.

00:09:18 Nick Budd

Less so. Odessa, at the time the mood changed from we're going to win this war and and you know, sort of very bullish and just to the point.

00:09:28 Nick Budd

Of.

00:09:29 Nick Budd

Natural patriotism? I I suppose in our boys will win. Change to a I I think a more.

00:09:38 Nick Budd

Realistic understanding that.

00:09:41 Nick Budd

This war is going to go on longer than what most of them said to me. They thought was going to be 3 months. They were talking about me popping it, you know, you must come over in the summer.

00:09:51 Nick Budd

When?

00:09:51 Nick Budd

The war's finished.

00:09:54 Nick Budd

Two or three of them said.

00:09:55 Nick Budd

That to me and.

00:09:57 Nick Budd

I didn't actually say that I thought the wall was going to be finished by the summer because I didn't believe that, but the mood had changed and I think now in this sort of what is effectively how many days are we into it day Day 70 something now into this so we're well.

00:10:13 Nick Budd

Into the third month.

00:10:16 Nick Budd

The move seems to now be it's a way of life and.

00:10:22 Nick Budd

I'm they would just say.

00:10:26 Nick Budd

Yeah, it's we've had X amount of we've had X amounts of missiles or or, you know, or bombs directed to the city or we're we're just really getting on on with things now and it has clearly evolved as one might have expected over those three months to a point now where.

00:10:47 Nick Budd

It's a way of life, but also an acceptance that.

00:10:50 Nick Budd

Uh.

00:10:51 Nick Budd

How long is this going to go on for? And certainly I think the realisation seems to be, or the expectation seems to be that it's go on for significantly more months than what they were originally thinking.

00:11:07 Ben Skipper

When speaking with, you know with, with your sort of friends in in Ukraine.

00:11:15 Ben Skipper

How did they pursue? What is? What is the perception on the ground of what would be winning? I suppose the the best way of putting it. How do they feel they can achieve?

00:11:25 Ben Skipper

An overall victory, perhaps.

00:11:28 Nick Budd

I suppose that.

00:11:29 Nick Budd

That's not not a question I've actually directly asked any of them, but coming out in the general gist of the conversations, I would say that the 1st.

00:11:40 Nick Budd

The first key point for them about winning war was support from the West, and they need support from they need, you know.

00:11:49 Nick Budd

And I guess they got this from clearly their own, their own media, their own government messaging that they needed support from the West they would.

00:11:57 Nick Budd

In the end.

00:11:59 Nick Budd

They were genuinely grateful for, especially in the early that first month when we saw the EU and NATO supplying, I guess, smaller arms and money, potentially for prosecuting the war, for humanitarian aid, humanitarian supplies.

00:12:19 Nick Budd

Etcetera. They they all were talking about the closing of the sky, which was a big debate in that first month. And I knew that, you know, NATO, it would be very difficult for NATO to be able to, to, to, to commit to that without a a vast escalation.

00:12:39 Nick Budd

So, but that was that was one I think that's that's that's a valid.

00:12:44 Nick Budd

That's a valid piece of feedback that I got. We need Western support to be able to win this war and then in terms of perhaps.

00:12:56 Nick Budd

Me extrapolating what they were saying to me, the.

00:13:02 Nick Budd

It seemed to be that their their version of winning the war was to remove Russia Russian troops back to at least that that that the positions that existed.

00:13:15 Nick Budd

Prior to the invasion of Ukraine in on February 24th, again not specific question, but definitely.

00:13:23 Nick Budd

That was, you know, we need to get these. We need, we need to push these people out back-to-back to where we were and of course, and that was by definition, the areas of Luhansk and the Donbass and the people's republics that were set up post 2014 and also.

00:13:45 Nick Budd

You know, back to bottling up Russian troops back in in Crimea. That was their. That was what I would suggest were the two key elements of winning support from the.

00:13:59 Nick Budd

West.

00:14:00 Nick Budd

And removing Russia from the newly occupied lands of of Ukraine.

00:14:08 Ben Skipper

It's it's interesting you mentioned about.

00:14:11 Ben Skipper

Crimea, Donbass and Hansk because there there's there's been a lot of talk, hasn't there and about.

00:14:20 Ben Skipper

A try and you know where? Where would Russian troops withdraw back to? Do they withdraw back to?

00:14:27 Ben Skipper

The frontlines in 2014.

00:14:30 Ben Skipper

Or would Ukraine as a whole accept to withdraw back to the the lines departure pre 24th of February?

00:14:42 Ben Skipper

I mean, are they? Do you get the feeling that there's this, there's this sort of?

00:14:46 Ben Skipper

Shifting willingness to perhaps accept the latter rather than the former as an aim of achieving possible outcome for them.

00:14:55 Nick Budd

I think.

00:14:59 Nick Budd

Post the withdrawal retreat, however, we want to describe.

00:15:05 Nick Budd

The Russian sort of strategic removal from the NW and North East of of Kiev.

00:15:15 Nick Budd

Post that and when we started understanding.

00:15:20 Nick Budd

The.

00:15:21 Nick Budd

The reality of occupied Ukrainian lands such as the regions is that was it Chernihiv in in the northeast Boucha Upin.

00:15:34 Nick Budd

I remember having one conversation specifically with a friend in Kiev and.

00:15:39 Nick Budd

Blazes mentioned to me that.

00:15:44 Nick Budd

I think there's.

00:15:45 Nick Budd

I don't think Ukraine is easy for me to understand politically, exactly.

00:15:53 Nick Budd

They they don't fall into for me a neat binary supporter of Zelensky or not and but.

00:16:02 Nick Budd

And so when you have the mix of Russian speakers, Ukrainian speakers.

00:16:08 Nick Budd

There a friend put it to me that post that withdrawal from cave and the the knowledge that there were very much some horrific war crimes being undertaken in areas in the suburbs of Kiev and beyond.

00:16:27 Nick Budd

They she this lady in particular, said to me that.

00:16:31 Nick Budd

Even friends who.

00:16:34 Nick Budd

She knew previously from the East, from Donbass and the Hansk and other people.

00:16:41 Nick Budd

That she would know in kieve the viewers hardened to whereas they weren't particularly bothered about some were not particularly bothered about the Donbass, and even attempting to reclaim the Donbass or the Hansk regions. It hardened after that, to the point whereby as one would.

00:17:01 Nick Budd

As one would perhaps imagine if this happened here in the UK.

00:17:05 Nick Budd

When the brutality and the war crimes were becoming evident.

00:17:11 Nick Budd

They were. They were suggesting that with the people they knew.

00:17:18 Nick Budd

The opinion was hardening towards we need to remove these people back out of Donbas and and Luhansk. So I don't know if that adequately answers your question, but certainly that was one person.

00:17:33 Nick Budd

And and I would to say that most Ukrainians I speak to know of know of people in the East that are under the, you know, the the jurisdiction of.

00:17:45 Nick Budd

The next People's Republic and the hands of People's Republic and also of people that they know in in, in, in Russia, Ukrainians who are in Russia, just across the border in, if you like in Volgograd Oblast but.

00:17:58 Nick Budd

At the very least.

00:18:01 Nick Budd

My interpretation is they want them removed back to 2014 lines and.

00:18:09 Nick Budd

There are certainly some now that that want them removed from Crimea proper, and for me, if I try to put myself in their in their shoes.

00:18:19 Nick Budd

I could entirely understand them wanting Russia removed entirely from Ukraine, but of course you know the.

00:18:30 Nick Budd

Pragmatically is that is that going to be achieved. Personally speaking, I very much doubt it.

00:18:38 Ben Skipper

OK.

00:18:39 Ben Skipper

The chops fell distant.

00:18:42 Ben Skipper

Listening to sort of what Nick's been saying.

00:18:47 Ben Skipper

Just recounting the experiences on the ground there.

00:18:51 Ben Skipper

How does that shape?

00:18:55 Ben Skipper

Considerations as.

00:18:57 Ben Skipper

Trying to find the best way to describe it. To sum it up how? How, how? What would your reflections be on on those comments?

00:19:09 Philip Blood

Thanks.

00:19:14 Philip Blood

I mean.

00:19:15 Philip Blood

Two minds here. I understand. What, nick?

00:19:21 Philip Blood

You want to see the Ukrainian people getting their lives back together that open door.

00:19:29 Philip Blood

Politics.

00:19:33 Philip Blood

Politics is an ugly game.

00:19:36 Philip Blood

And.

00:19:39 Philip Blood

We've had a situation where.

00:19:42 Philip Blood

Putin invaded the Crimea and has occupied this area.

00:19:47 Philip Blood

And that's that occupation has been going on for a very long time.

00:19:53 Philip Blood

So when we say.

00:19:57 Philip Blood

Go back to those original lines of 2014.

00:20:02 Philip Blood

Or 2008 because there was conflicts going on before. What happens to the people who are there now?

00:20:09 Nick Budd

UM.

00:20:11 Philip Blood

Who are happy to have Putin in in their.

00:20:16 Philip Blood

Living space. And that's the complication with these kind of conflicts. It was the complication in Yugoslavia and again in the same complication. I think the big problem.

00:20:30 Philip Blood

We have. This is a great many people, great many countries involved.

00:20:35 Philip Blood

In this war.

00:20:37 Philip Blood

Who are pushing the Ukraine?

00:20:39 Philip Blood

Towards.

00:20:41 Philip Blood

Wanting to accept certain outcomes.

00:20:46 Philip Blood

And I'm not sure envy time that it's interest. It's within the interest of the Ukrainian people.

00:20:52 Philip Blood

And let me explain that.

00:20:54 Philip Blood

OK, so you give the Ukrainian people enough of an opportunity to carry on fighting. I think that's good. I think that's important. But at some point.

00:21:05 Philip Blood

And this has been discussed in previous in previous podcast.

00:21:10 Philip Blood

At some point, the country then becomes a testing ground for modern weaponry.

00:21:19 Philip Blood

And then and then the politics steps in.

00:21:23 Philip Blood

And the whole new range of.

00:21:26 Philip Blood

More aimed battle aims community aimed cultural aims, social aims.

00:21:32 Philip Blood

And we've moved further and further away from.

00:21:37 Philip Blood

What the ideal outcome is?

00:21:39 Philip Blood

From the very beginning.

00:21:42 Philip Blood

If you go back to what Nick was saying when the first operations occurred on the 24th of February, my my first concern was if the Russians are going to drop bombardment, they're dropping bombardment on civilian communities that have been of dense population.

00:22:00 Philip Blood

Now that damage that was done to those dense populations could not easily be addressed, and what followed up afterwards? And we've seen the war crimes so and, and we know people. I I made the comment that this was a form of genocide.

00:22:15 Philip Blood

How do you work back from that? So not only do you have the warranties?

00:22:20 Philip Blood

But how do you have any kind of political reconciliation in a situation where there's been genocide and war crime?

00:22:31 Philip Blood

So the when we when everybody's talking about, oh, the Ukrainians must win.

00:22:38 Philip Blood

It's very difficult to understand what's the win.

00:22:41 Philip Blood

Is it not only to get their country back, but is it also to prosecute Putin in The Hague War Crime Centre?

00:22:48 Philip Blood

All of these Russian officers to be put before the war crimes trials.

00:22:54 Philip Blood

And then we're in that game. Well, OK. Can we prove it? Yes, there is evidence. So here's the evidence. The Russians deny it. Will the Russians release those officers for prosecution?

00:23:05 Philip Blood

We had that whole problem in the Yugoslavian period and I think only one person, just one person, was prosecuted before 1999.

00:23:15 Philip Blood

And so.

00:23:16 Philip Blood

You you start scaling what? What the war aims are what's the win?

00:23:22 Philip Blood

And I'm not 100% sure that we're all really understand what this win is going to be.

00:23:29 Philip Blood

If Ukraine gets the pamphlet.

00:23:33 Philip Blood

Down back again if if the Ukraine gets all the country back that's been lost and all of it has shattered ruin.

00:23:41 Philip Blood

Completely bombed away.

00:23:44 Philip Blood

And that's going to take decades to recover.

00:23:51 Philip Blood

And what happens to the people who then get pushed out and pushed into Russia?

00:23:56 Philip Blood

Are we then causing another counter crime by pushing people out of their homes because they've lived there for 10 years or however long?

00:24:07 Philip Blood

We get into a very, very confusing situation.

00:24:10 Philip Blood

And in all of this, all the different nationalisms are playing against each other. So you've got the Ukrainian nationalism, you've got the Americans, you've got the British, you've got the European Union, you've got Germany, you've got Finland now getting involved in Sweden and going to Europe and NATO.

00:24:27 Philip Blood

It's getting ever so confused and we're losing what the original.

00:24:33 Philip Blood

Wind should be which is not just to get the people home, but to get the Russians out. And how do you get the Russians out?

00:24:41 Philip Blood

Are they going to withdraw?

00:24:44 Philip Blood

Are they going to leave the Donbas? They've actually been fighting in the Donbas since 2014.

00:24:54 Philip Blood

It's a it's a long old war.

00:24:57 Ben Skipper

That's really and in just.

00:25:00 Ben Skipper

As you were speaking, I was making a few notes there and then it was your. It was your last your last statement. How do we get the Russians out?

00:25:10 Philip Blood

It's.

00:25:14 Ben Skipper

That there are similarities in what's going on in some respects. What Hamdan, Yugoslavia.

00:25:20 Ben Skipper

But we're also in very, very much unchartered territory.

00:25:25 Ben Skipper

With the possibility of the removal of Russian forces, you know the Ukrainians are.

00:25:34 Ben Skipper

Ukrainian absolutely adamant that they want their territory back, so this is, you know, we we this is a.

00:25:42 Philip Blood

So if you if you, if you if you take the flags away and denationalise it and just make it about the civilians.

00:25:50 Philip Blood

Then obviously The thing is to do is to get people back to their homes.

00:25:55 Philip Blood

Take out all the nationality, the nationalities, all this nationalism. This flag waving is confusing the situation.

00:26:05 Philip Blood

This is all about Europeans, and I don't care about the Americans being involved. All they're doing is complicating the situation for their own political interest.

00:26:14 Philip Blood

What we should be doing as Europeans is constructing a European map so that the people who are losing their homes, especially the refugees, have been forced out of their houses, get their homes back, OK, you can't get your house back because it's been flattened on the Russian artillery. But at least you can get your land back.

00:26:35 Philip Blood

And I would put it into the context of Europeans in the European Community and address it from that perspective. And OK, that's not going to be perfect for Europe. Ukrainians, it's not going to be perfect for Russians. But I think if we take it out of the flag waving scenario and put it down to humanitarian.

00:26:54 Philip Blood

Interests and needs and what's best for people.

00:26:58 Philip Blood

Then perhaps that's a better way to go.

00:27:05 Ben Skipper

Justin, what? What are? What are your thoughts on?

00:27:07 Dustin Du Cane

This chap I started discussing the.

00:27:14 Dustin Du Cane

Ukrainian will seriously.

00:27:17 Dustin Du Cane

After a couple of days of reading Twitter and watching the news browsing websites during a period of war which I would call the like war, the like phase of war where we had social media.

00:27:38 Dustin Du Cane

Full of.

00:27:40 Dustin Du Cane

Happy Ukrainians resisting against the Russians and we had.

00:27:47 Dustin Du Cane

Not only tractors, but we had kids throwing a lot of cocktails, kids filling up, lot of cocktails.

00:27:58 Dustin Du Cane

Normal Ukrainians grabbing weapons out of trucks to fight the Russians and.

00:28:08 Dustin Du Cane

All the images we were getting was were of Ukrainian resistance and Ukrainian victory and an Ukrainian lady.

00:28:18 Dustin Du Cane

Replying to a friend of ours who was saying we don't know what's going to happen in the next part of the war.

00:28:27 Dustin Du Cane

She wrote to him. What do you mean?

00:28:30 Dustin Du Cane

Ukraine has won this war. Russia has lost.

00:28:35 Dustin Du Cane

That was four days in.

00:28:38 Dustin Du Cane

I just went.

00:28:40 Dustin Du Cane

But the Ukrainians are even saying this, and this is a lady in Ukraine saying this, something that needs to be addressed in the information space, the need to define.

00:28:53 Dustin Du Cane

What winning is and I was? I started thinking based on my knowledge of previous conflicts and wars and holocausts, I started thinking, what does winning mean?

00:29:05 Dustin Du Cane

And.

00:29:07 Dustin Du Cane

As Nick was saying.

00:29:09 Dustin Du Cane

The perception the definition of winning changes overtime, because I think in February 28 if the Ukrainians had pushed the Russians back to the borders on the 24th.

00:29:25 Dustin Du Cane

And signed the Minsk free Agreement, which would go to repeat the previous two pieces of paper.

00:29:34 Dustin Du Cane

Then that will be treated as a win. But after Russia has Steam Rd Mariupol.

00:29:44 Dustin Du Cane

Annihilated the city.

00:29:46 Dustin Du Cane

And then murdered all those people in butcher I can't see.

00:29:52 Dustin Du Cane

Piece that will be acceptable for the Ukrainian people.

00:29:57 Dustin Du Cane

I could be wrong, I think Nick.