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The Decision at Kharkiv

Is this the end phase of the War in Ukraine?

Dustin Du Cane

11 May 2024 — 5 min read

The looming specter of a Russian offensive against Kharkiv has finally materialized, unfurling its threat across the region. Since the initial wave of attacks during the February 2022 invasion, Ukrainian forces have valiantly withstood relentless bombardment, leaving Kharkiv ensnared in a perpetual state of siege. Amidst sporadic missile strikes and intensified artillery barrages, the city's fate has hung precariously in the balance. Ukrainian counter-offensives have sparked fleeting hopes, only to be dashed by the relentless ebb and flow of conflict. Positioned on Ukraine's mid frontier, Kharkiv stands as a linchpin in the nation's strategic defense, serving as a vital nexus for western aid and refuge. Yet, it also serves as the fulcrum of Putin's Anaconda plan, a point of vulnerability exploited by relentless pressure. The protracted strain of dwindling Western aid, sluggish arms procurement, and diminishing manpower reserves has eroded Ukraine's once stalwart defenses. Meanwhile, the much-anticipated collapse of Russia's military-industrial complex and the failure of its armed forces on the battlefield have yet to materialize, confounding predictions and deepening Ukraine's defense conundrum. As NATO's support wanes and the West grapples with strategic indecision, the stark reality confronts the world: stand idly by as Ukraine faces annihilation or intervene to halt its demise in the eleventh hour.

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Russia's summer offensives have unleashed a relentless cycle of aggression, inflicting mounting casualties upon Ukrainian forces. Initially, the steady onslaught of Russian aggression chipped away at Ukrainian defenses, but as time has worn on, the erosion intensified. While the loss of Russian manpower has been touted as a cause for celebration among dubious Western prognosticators, their predictions of Russia's imminent collapse were built on shaky foundations. Neither the logistical challenges, the proliferation of subpar weaponry, nor the perceived weaknesses of the Russian military apparatus were sufficient indicators of Russia's true capabilities or Putin's unwavering determination to prevail. As the Ukrainian military finds itself on the brink of collapse, Western analysts confront a sobering reality: the destabilization of a friendly state and the ripple effects already reverberating through Western politics. Meanwhile, the media spotlight has been diverted by events in Gaza, exacerbating Western aversion to conflict. Twenty-three years since the onset of the war on terror, and three years since its ignominious conclusion, the West finds itself militarily impotent and disinterested in engaging in further conflicts, particularly against the encroaching shadow of Eastern aggression.

The conflict between Israel and Gaza reached a harrowing climax on October 7, 2024, marked by appalling acts of brutality. Israeli actions have far exceeded any semblance of proportionate force, igniting global condemnation. In a brazen display of defiance, Israel's recent decision to sever ties with the United Nations has sent shockwaves through the international community. While some may view this move as theatrical, the implications of deviating from the foundational principles of the 1948 UN charter are profound. As Putin asserts increasing influence in Middle Eastern affairs and the war in Gaza rages on, a formidable power bloc has coalesced, leaving the West grappling with the emergence of a new front in the march towards global conflict.

This time the Nazis are the Russians: Dustin

In 2021, the volatile border between Belarus and Poland became a battleground for geopolitical maneuvering, as Russia orchestrated the influx of refugees from the Middle East into Belarus. This cynical exploitation of human lives has not only exacerbated tensions but has also thrown European policymakers into a tailspin. Despite their efforts to stem the tide through ineffective deportations and naval blockades, the relentless stream of refugees continues unabated. Putin and his allies have weaponized humanitarian crises, forcing the West into a perpetual state of strategic humanitarianism that has overshadowed rational decision-making. Meanwhile, amidst the chaos, Grant Schapps, perhaps the West's most ineffectual Minister of Defence, resorts to juvenile Twitter tirades, diverting attention from substantive issues. In a separate gesture, the German chancellor proposes a peace summit with Ukraine, conspicuously excluding Russia, yet the true audience of this message remains ambiguous. Certainly not Ukraine's embattled defenders, nor does it seem to evoke the dormant warrior spirit in the German populace. The spectre of war with Russia looms large, haunted by the collective trauma of past atrocities, particularly among women who fear the prospect of mass rapes similar to those during World War II. Putin exploits these fears through propaganda campaigns, such as the recent atrocities in Bucha and elsewhere, shaping the narrative of genocide, rape, and murder in Ukraine and Gaza. This specter of relentless warfare has cast a pall over the West, pacifying any semblance of martial fervor

The stark realities unfolding in Ukraine and Gaza pose a dire threat to Western culture, not due to the distracting rhetoric of culture wars, but rather because they lay bare the profound failures of NATO and Western security apparatuses. The European Union, led by a figure known more for political manoeuvring than military acumen from tenure as German Minister of Defense, struggles to muster cohesive military action. While French President Macron has been among the first to recognize the ominous implications of Ukraine's potential defeat, his calls for action have met lukewarm responses. Three years into a conflict on the EU's doorstep, debates over military rearmament, conscription, and expansion persist, yielding little progress. As countries along the Russian-Belarus-Ukraine frontier brace for potential aggression, Western pundits engage in fruitless speculation about Russia's eventual collapse, all while Kharkiv smoulders under the weight of their misguided fantasies.

PS Dustin edits:

From our co-author’s book, the legendary Absolute War from Chris Bellamy.

Phil hates when I make WW2 analogies.

But last year I was saying that the Ukraine counteroffensive was a risk of a Kursk repeat. Last reserves used up in the face of a prepared dug in enemy.